A chastened Pentagon emphasises soft power and partnerships over military force

Win today’s wars first

Geopolitics (2) - Win today’s wars first | International | The Economist

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CHINA is rising, while Russia is becoming worryingly assertive. But for the foreseeable future, America's Department of Defence says, America's biggest worry will be small messy wars, fought with messy alliances with messy outcomes; more Iraqs, Afghanistans and campaigns against the likes of al-Qaeda.

The Pentagon now calls this the “Long War against violent extremist movements” (dropping the old appellation of the “Global War on Terrorism”). Military force is no longer the only, or even the primary tool. Soft power rather than hard power is given priority: less emphasis on the need to capture and kill terrorists, and more on winning the allegiance of indigenous populations for their local governments. The most important military task, says the new National Defence Strategy, released by the Pentagon on August 1st, “is not the fighting we do ourselves, but how well we help prepare our partners to defend and govern themselves.”

This sums up much of what Robert Gates, the defence secretary, has been saying of late. Yet the strategy is unusual in that it was issued in the dying months of the administration of George Bush. A new president will no doubt order a rethink. Plainly Mr Gates wants to pass on the lessons America has learnt the hard way, and bequeath a military machine pointing firmly (though reluctantly) in the direction of counter-insurgency and not just big conventional wars. Indeed, some wonder whether Mr Gates himself might not stay on under a new president. Moreover, he has told subordinates not to leave if asked to facilitate America's first “wartime” transition since the Vietnam war.

Mr Gates's strategy is a world away from the last one, produced under Donald Rumsfeld in 2005. Gone is the hubristic talk of defeating “adversaries at the time, place and in the manner of our choosing”, as is the warning that state sovereignty is no protection for rogue states and the unilateral idea of working with allies only “when we can”.

Mr Gates's view is more humble, seeing a complex world where American power is curtailed, and military action must give way to diplomacy, as well as economic and other civilian levers. The system of international rules is less a constraint on America, more a vital element of its security; allies are assets who “often possess capabilities, skills and knowledge we cannot duplicate”.

Dealing with ungoverned space where terrorists may thrive is not just a matter of being able to insert military forces, but of “working with and through local actors whenever possible” to help them extend their writ. The paper's view of “victory” is nuanced; it will involve “discrediting extremist ideology, creating fissures between and among extremist groups and reducing them to the level of nuisance groups.”

All this is not to say that America ignores other geostrategic problems. The Pentagon says it must retain the ability to defeat “rogue states” such as Iran and North Korea. America must also “hedge” against big powers, particularly China's growing economic and military power. 

The strategy expresses strong concern about Russia's “retreat from openness and democracy” and more assertive stance—not least its claims to parts of the Arctic, the bullying of neighbours and the resumption of long-distance bomber flights. “We do not expect Russia to revert to outright global military confrontation, but the risk of miscalculation or conflict arising out of economic coercion has increased,” it says.

America retains the world's pre-eminent military force, spending almost as much on defence as all other countries together. But precisely because of this military prowess, enemies will seek “asymmetric” means to counter it. That means America must “display a mastery of irregular warfare” rather than wish it away.

The document says little about the structure of America's armed forces, or its spending priorities. But it points to supporting the army at the expense of the navy and the air force, which argue that the threat of China requires more spending on advanced aircraft, ships and space assets. Mr Gates regards such thinking as a dangerous disease—“next war-itis”, he calls it. His strategy is to dedicate “substantial but not infinite” resources to keep an advantage over China. But the priority is to try to win today's wars.

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Win today’s wars first

A chastened Pentagon emphasises soft power and partnerships over military force

International August 9th 2008

From the August 9th 2008 edition

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