Anyone with an interest in state resilience should see Contagion. The disaster movie's subtext is institutional failure in the face of adversity. Don't imagine it hasn't all been considered by a government near you. Preparing for pandemics is one of the reasons for the World Health Organisation's existence, so it is reassuring to know that they have thought of this one, too. World governance in catastrophe is an element of global statecraft. But some disasters are more local, and then how an individual state responds shows its citizens, and the wider world, just how good it is at its core business of meeting basic needs. That is one reason why deciding whether to accept disaster relief is partly a matter of state self-confidence. But it is not just about bravado. Even humanitarian aid can carry a discreet price tag.
The earthquake in Turkey, where the death toll is approaching 600, prompted offers of help from around the world. But the one that sparked interest came from Israel. Israel's relations with Turkey have yet to recover from the death of nine Turkish nationals in the attack on an aid flotilla heading for Gaza over a year ago. Last December there seemed to be a rapprochement when Turkey helped Israel tackle a serious forest fire in the Carmel mountains. Last week, Israel's offer to send relief to the earthquake was, after initial doubts, accepted.
No one expects it to lead instantly to fully restored diplomatic relations. But disaster diplomacy does sometimes work: neighbourly help in 1999 after another Turkish earthquake unlocked the settlement to an ancient enmity with Greece. The Boxing Day tsunami in Indonesia led to the ending of the long-running separatist conflict with Aceh. The causal link, though, is not predictable. After all, Burma reluctantly accepted international aid after the catastrophic cyclone in 2008, but there is no firm evidence yet of a diplomatic dividend.
What international aid can do is change the climate. When the Chinese media showed Japanese aid workers weeping in the tragic aftermath of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, there was a hint of a warming between two countries whose mutual antipathy is felt at every level. China was swift to offer reciprocal help to Japan after the tsunami and earthquake this year.
Closer inspection, however, shows the offer was more nuanced than first appeared. It was a token-sized gesture, involving just 15 people, further complicated by the inclusion of representatives of the People's Liberation Army, whom the Japanese were reluctant to allow on to the military airbase serving as a centre for relief operations. Even offers of humanitarian aid have to be interrogated. It is always a good idea to check out the gift horse's molars.