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Pyongyang's strange model of nuclear diplomacy

Tony Walker
Tony WalkerColumnist and award-winning foreign correspondent

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Following an opaque North Korea's latest test of a nuclear device the world finds itself once again embroiled in one of its diplomatic rituals.

This includes condemnation by the international community, preparation of a United Nations Security Council resolution denouncing Pyongyang's latest nuclear gambit and discussion at the world body about further sanctions.

The problem with all of this is that a hermit fiefdom has shown itself to be immune to censure and relatively impervious to sanctions against exports of its military and nuclear technology and luxury goods, and limitations on travel by North Koreans involved in its nuclear program.

The last thing China wants to contemplate is an outward rush of North Koreans seeking sanctuary in its northern provinces. Getty Images

As things stand, a UN blacklist includes 20 North Korean entities and 12 individuals. Assets, such as they are, of these entities and individuals abroad have been frozen.

Any push for much harsher sanctions that would further isolate North Korea would likely continue to be opposed in the Security Council by China which fears steps that might cause an implosion in a country with which its shares a long common boundary.

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The last thing China wants to contemplate is an outward rush of North Koreans seeking sanctuary in its northern provinces.

However, Beijing has every reason to be peeved over a North Korean nuclear detonation. Unlike previous occasions China was not informed in advance.

This irritation was reflected in an official response from Beijing that was sharper than normal.

"Today, despite the opposition of the international community, North Korea carried out a nuclear test," said Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "China is strongly against this act."

What remains unclear is whether North Korea's claims are valid that it had tested a 'hydrogen' device with potentially destructive capabilities many times that of an atomic bomb.

A consensus view among nuclear experts is that Pyongyang is exaggerating its technical proficiency for its own purposes aimed both at bolstering the North Korean regime in the eyes of its own people, and at the same time reminding its neighbours of its deterrent capabilities.

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In a wider geopolitical sense, the latest North Korean provocation could hardly have come at a more awkward moment for the US and its allies grappling with a multitude of global challenges, including tensions between its traditional Middle East ally Saudi Arabia and Iran.

US focus on peace talks aimed at ending a destructive Syrian civil war and scheduled to convene in Geneva on January 25 are being buffeted by latest developments in the Middle East, and now a North Korean nuclear challenge.

US Secretary of State John Kerry reflected intense US concerns about developments on the Korean peninsula in a blunt warning to Pyongyang that its graduation to "nuclear armed state" would not be tolerated.

"This highly provocative act poses a grave threat to international peace and security and blatantly violates multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions," Kerry said.

"We do not and will not accept North Korea as a nuclear armed state, and actions such as this only strengthen our resolve."

These sorts of interventions are all very well, but given the highly volatile nature of the Korean peninsula with the South Korean capital, Seoul, close to the demilitarized boundary with North Korea the world needs to tread warily.

What Pyongyang is continuing to put in place is a nuclear trip-wire that is aimed at affording a Stalinist regime protection against outside interference. This is a high stakes game of nuclear bluff.

Foreign minister Julie Bishop has joined others in condemning North Korea's latest provocation, but Australia has little leverage available to it, since it has no diplomatic presence in Pyongyang and virtually no trade with North Korea.

A reluctant China might be able to influence events across its northern boundaries, but Beijing's reluctance to exert any meaningful pressure on Pyongyang has enabled North Korea to continue with a nuclear program that may well be edging towards an ability to fit miniature nuclear warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Tony Walker writes on politics, North America and the Middle East. He was formerly the Australian Financial Review's international editor. Connect with Tony on Twitter.

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